Title : Chief of Staff: Prepare for Gaza conflict
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Chief of Staff: Prepare for Gaza conflict
The annual intelligence assessment for 2019 was presented to the IDF General Staff Wednesday, less than a month after Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi assumed his position as IDF Chief of Staff.The situation on the Gaza border was considered the most pressing security issue facing Israel after Iran. The intelligence department estimates that the potential for an offensive initiative by Hamas and Islamic Jihad is very high and may occur even before the Knesset elections in April.
An offensive initiative can come in the form of an attack originating from a tunnel, a pinpoint operation such as shooting at a bus and anything that will shock the system without drawing Israel into a war, but could still bring a significant Israeli response.
Hamas faces significant challenges and wants to lift the siege on Gaza. The terror group is therefore willing to take actions that will force Israel to exhaust all possibilities, and may consider election time a good time to do this.
According to the intelligence assessment, the Judea and Samaria region has a strategic potential for escalation, but not at the same level as Gaza. According to the report, he cause of the escalation could be the unveiling of President Trump's peace plan, the departure of Mahmoud Abbas or other elements on the ground which could inflame the situation.
As for the northern arena, Syria, or as it is called in the defense establishment - Sadadistan - it is also a challenge where the likelihood of reaction scenarios rises in light of the attacks on Israel.
As for Hezbollah and Lebanon, their plan of attack was severely hampered, but not fully neutralized during the destruction of Hezbollah's cross-border attack tunnels. Hezbollah does not have the capability to manufacture precision rockets in Lebanon today, but the organization is making constant efforts to change this reality.
Above all, Iran is the "keystone" connecting virtually all threats in the region. The sanctions led to a severe economic crisis. For example, banana prices have risen by hundreds of percent, as have the prices other basic products, but Tehran has yet to make a decision about their response to the cancellation of the nuclear agreement and the renewal of US sanctions.
If the Iranians decide to unilaterally violate the agreement, they can restore enrichment capability within a year and build a nuclear bomb within two years. Alternatively, they can either wait until the Trump time passes or signal that they are willing to discuss the agreement and thus gain time.
A new challenge for the security establishment is Turkey, which is defined as a "rising hostile force." They have allocated more forces to learn about what is happening in Turkey under Erdogan. READ MORE
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