Title : Scenarios for a US-Iran detente
link : Scenarios for a US-Iran detente
Scenarios for a US-Iran detente
What does the future hold for Iran?
The American sanctions on Iran went into effect this week and a large number of companies stopped doing business with Iran so as not to lose their permission to continue to be active in America's economy. The sanctions will turn more severe in three months time and will include banks and energy industries, with the result that Iran will lose much of its income, the major part of which stems from oil, gas and related products. It seems that only China intends to continue its regular – or almost regular - economic ties with Iran and Russia, too,will probably not entirely halt its economic ties with the Ayatollah regime.
This article will explore two possible scenarios that could take place over the next two years. Both are based on the following basic assumptions:
1. President Trump will continue to pressure Iran in every conceivable economic way and that US pressure will bring the Iranian economy to its knees and possibly to a state of total collapse.
2. If Iran does not engage in armed violence, Trump will refrain from military action as well. If Iran employs military measures against sea travel in international waters – the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb – the US armed forces will strike Iran mercilessly.
3. President Trump will get even with Iran if it uses "proxies" in order to attack American interests.
4. Iran will attempt to get through the coming two and a half years quietly, hoping that Trump is to be defeated and followed by a Democratic president who will reinstate the nuclear agreement and remove the sanctions.
5. European leaders will continue to support Iran with words, but they will not be able to force European industries to do business with Iran.
6. European leaders are worried that Iran's regime will collapse and lead to general chaos, with everyone fighting everyone else and a new wave of millions of immigrants attempting to reach Europe. That is the reason Europe's leaders are trying to resuscitate the Iranian regime in every way they can. READ MORE
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